A seismic shift is shaking the foundations of the fossil fuel industry. It is contraction by design, not an unplanned collapse.
Mark Campanale, Founder & Director of the Carbon Tracker Initiative, tells us what’s hiding in plain sight: oil and gas companies are no longer growth players. They are pulling back and cashing out. And the market knows it.
“They’re learning to shrink gracefully rather than overextend” Mark tells this TTU podcast. “They’re extractors of value from legacy portfolios.”
According to Carbon Tracker’s analysis, fossil fuel companies are cutting capital investment, slashing exploration, and paying record dividends — like Saudi Aramco’s $10 billion payout — rather than building future growth. It’s a strategy that signals retreat, not resilience.
“The energy transition isn’t being led by incumbents,” Campanale warns.
“It’s happening around them.”
And its led by non fossil fuel companies. Clean energy technologies are rapidly scaling — not because oil majors are leading the charge, but because innovation and investment have shifted elsewhere.
“Fossil fuel companies are no longer growth plays”. Instead “they should be evaluated as finite life cash vehicles.”
Financial markets agree. The traditional model — build, explore, expand — is no longer being rewarded.
Energy giants are trading at low future earnings multiples, while capital flows to tech, renewables, and infrastructure.
And this shift isn’t speculative. It’s systemic.
“The old energy order is quietly receding.
This is not the future arriving. It’s already here.”
Mark Campanale
Mark Campanale is a pioneering force in sustainable finance, globally recognised for challenging conventional investment norms in the face of climate risk. As Founder and Director of Carbon Tracker, he has reshaped how financial institutions and policymakers assess the value and viability of fossil fuel assets in a net zero world. With a background in fund management and a deep commitment to financial transparency, Mark has led groundbreaking work on stranded assets, carbon budgets, and market mispricing. His advocacy is instrumental in shifting capital flows away from high-carbon dependency and toward long-term, system-wide resilience in the global economy.
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