Are fossil fuels really in retreat? In this podcast we highlight raw differences of view.
Our recent podcast with Mark Campanale, Founder and Director of the Carbon Tracker Initiative generated the dispute. It stimulated remarkable levels of audience engagement into six figures.
This provoked an email from Sir Jeremy Greenstock. He is a Former Top UK Ambassador and Chair of Lambert Energy Advisory, which advises the upstream energy industry on strategy and transactions.
Mark had told our podcast the “oil age is ending: we’re watching it shrink gracefully”. He said that CTI analysis shows a “contraction” by design is going on. Fossil fuel producers are not doubling down on production. In fact they are “stepping back from energy growth altogether”.
Sir Jeremy criticised Mark’s argument as “very partial”, “too simplistic” and “too categorical about the decline in oil demand”. On wind and solar “Mark never mentioned the high degree of intermittency: look at availability figures as opposed to installed capacity”.
Sir Jeremy said “Mark is right to point to a major transition going on”, but then said that his arguments are wrong. The shift to renewables is slower and costlier than many assume.
So we brought them together for this riveting 45 minute conversation. Listen and you will hear why.
This was a meeting of two robust and differing perspectives on the future of energy. That is why we brought them together.
Mark Campanale message was clear: “The oil age is ending, we’re watching it shrink gracefully.” He told our podcast that the economics of renewables are decisive. “Batteries plus renewables is cheaper than fossil fuels.” He pointed to California running its grid without gas and China leading a global surge in clean technology.
Sir Jeremy Greenstock rejected argument as “very partial”, “too simplistic” and “too categorical about the decline in oil demand”. He urged caution against over-simplification. He responded with what he framed as hard realities. “Renewables have had $6–8 trillion invested, yet by 2024 only supplied 10% of global energy needs.”
Sir Jeremy stressed that renewables – despite massive investment – still supply only a fraction of global energy. So critical sectors like transport, fertilisers, and plastics will have to continue to rely on hydrocarbons. “Oil demand will not fade as fast as Mark says. There will be a growing gap between world oil demand and supply”.
Growth in economies will be the key driver for increased demand for fossil fuels.
What emerged from the debate was not contradiction but complementarity. The optimism of rapid change alongside the realism of entrenched demand and the supply that will still be expected to meet it.
“The danger is underestimating the enormity of the transition that’s taking place,” TTU’s Nik Gowing concluded
The gap was stark. Mark pointed to trillions already flowing into clean energy. In response Jeremy highlighted costs, intermittency, and bottlenecks that are constraining the shift to renewables.
The result is a rare conversation that highlights the near impossibility of finding definitive answers. It also illuiminates the complexity of the global energy transition, from investment and innovation to demand and geopolitics.
The takeaway from their podcast is clear: the energy transition is underway and actionable today. As Sir Jeremy concludes: instead of “either-or” a pragmatic “and-and” approach – combining innovation, investment, and strategy – will accelerate change without disrupting growth in global economies.
This episode captures the urgency, the optimism, and also the caution shaping the future of global energy. Don’t miss it.
Sir Jeremy Greenstock & Mark Campanale
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Sir Jeremy Greenstock is a distinguished British diplomat and global affairs advisor known for his deep insight into international security, energy, and diplomacy. A former UK Ambassador to the United Nations and Chair of its Counter-Terrorism Committee, he later served as the UK’s Special Envoy for Iraq before becoming Chair of Lambert Energy Advisory. With decades of experience across diplomacy, policy, and corporate advisory, he helps leaders navigate complex global challenges and the realities of the energy transition.
Mark Campanale is a pioneering sustainable finance expert and Founder of Carbon Tracker, the independent think tank that first introduced the concept of “stranded assets” in global energy markets. With a career spanning investment management and sustainability advocacy, he has reshaped how investors and policymakers assess climate risk. Mark’s work has influenced financial institutions, regulators, and governments, helping leaders navigate the clean energy transition and align financial stability with climate security.
