Simon Sharpe unwraps optimism. He challenges the prevailing downbeat narrative surrounding COP30. Despite the disappointment over the lack of ambition in the final communique, Simon argues that “reality is way ahead of negotiations.”
He points to a major shift in global investment patterns: “twice as much is going to be invested into clean energy, renewable energy than into fossil fuels over the course of this year.”
This, Simon concludes, is “an astonishing measure of progress.”
The business positives driving the transition are clear. As Simon notes, “solar and wind are cheaper than coal and gas… all over the world,” and in 2023, “over 90% of the new power generating capacity… was renewables.”
Where diplomacy needs to change is equally clear: “Focus the diplomacy on problem solving rather than goal setting.”
With global climate goals already agreed, “the critical thing now is to actually solve the problems on the way to meeting those goals.”
On fossil fuels, Simon argues that leverage lies not in production but in demand: “If you want to beat the fossil fuels… you have to destroy demand for them.”
Electric vehicles are already reshaping oil markets, with EVs “about 20% of global car sales, up from about 2% only six years ago.”
He also challenges the assumption that global progress requires global unanimity: “You do not need 198 countries to change the economy.”
Regulators in Beijing, Brussels and Washington already “write the rules for over half of the global market.”
His guiding principle: “First build, then break.” Build the new clean systems first, then the old fossil-fuel-based systems will fall away.
This is the real story emerging after COP30.
Not stalemate, but momentum.
Simon Sharpe
Simon Sharpe is one of the most original thinkers shaping the global climate conversation today. A former UK diplomat and now Managing Director of S-Curve Economics, he challenges conventional climate narratives by focusing on how change actually happens fast, nonlinear, and driven by tipping points.
With deep experience at the intersection of policy, economics, and systems change, Simon helps leaders move beyond targets and negotiations to understand the real forces accelerating the global transition. His work equips decision-makers with clarity, confidence, and a sharper sense of what is now possible in a rapidly shifting world.
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